Will most people use a “rectangle” as their primary device in 2034?

Question

Today, there are more mobile phones than people on the planet. Basically all mobile and smart phones resemble a rectangular brick. Some fold, some have many screens, all are various degrees of rectangles.

In a decade, will most people’s primary “device” (what they use to connect to the Internet, or its successor) be a “rectangle”?

I’ve included a breakdown of what I view as a rectangle below, please ask any/all clarifying questions. Resolves at the end of 2034, based on the US population.

List of current devices that I consider to be a “rectangle”

All classic mobile phones (Blackberry to iPhone and Samsung)

All classic foldable phones (Sidekick to Samsung Flips)

All modern watches (Apple Watch, Pixel Watch, Fitbit, Garmin) - Just a rectangle on your wrist

Rabbit R1

List of current devices that I don’t consider to be a rectangle:

Wearable VR/AR glasses (Apple Vision Pro, Meta Quest, Google Glass)

Non-Screen Based Hardware (AI Pin)

Brain hardware (Neuralink)

See another futuristic market I made

(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-generation-beta-whatever-theyr)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 87% chance (47 traders, as of Jan 31, 2026).