What’s the next state to legalize recreational marijuana? 🍁

Question

Today, weed is recreationally legal in 24 states (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington). What’s the next one to legalize it?

Only US states count here, not territories. Also multiple states can be resolve YES, if and only if, ballots / laws legalizing weed are passed on the same date in multiple states.

If marijuana becomes federally recreationally legal before any new state makes it legal, every state will resolve to YES.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Pennsylvania, followed by Florida and Hawaii  are most likely. See the market for live updates (79 traders, as of Apr 3, 2026).