[@mattyb’s 500th market spectacular] Will Bitcoin reach $500k before this market reaches 5k traders?

Question

Inspired by @AmmonLam

Will the price of Bitcoin reach 500k before this market has 5,000 traders? This is traders who have ever traded in the market, not currently holding positions in the market.

Live BTC price. Market will extend as needed.

Note: To reach 5k traders, this market would need to be the 2nd largest on the site, growing larger than all markets but LK-99 (true at time of posting).

See the 1k v 100k version as well:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-bitcoin-reach-100k-before-this)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (14 traders, as of Nov 4, 2025).