At the end of 2025, will TikTok be banned in more countries than Twitter (X) and Telegram combined?

Question

At the end of 2025, will TikTok be banned in more countries than Twitter (X) and Telegram combined? Ties Resolve NO.

Today this would Resolve NO, as 14 > 12.

Current counts:

Twitter (9): Brazil, China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela

Telegram (5): China, Cuba, Iran, Pakistan, and Thailand

TikTok (12): Senegal, Somalia, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan

Note the application must be fully blocked for this to count. “Restricted on some IPS”, “Banned on some devices/in some states”, and/or “blocked some channels / users” all won’t count. Nor will not offering the app in a country (like TikTok is not in China). This also doesn’t consider any former restrictions which are no longer in place.

If a temporary ban is still ongoing on December 31st, 2025, it will count as being banned (even if the end date is known).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 24% chance (6 traders, as of Oct 30, 2025).