Will "CSU" be in the next Bundestag?

Question

The current german parliement, the Bundestag, has the CSU party and together with the CDU, they are called the "Union". The CSU only exist in Bavaria and the CDU covers the other states.

CSU got 5.2% in the last election. A party has to reach at least 5% to get in. Legislation has been passed to reduce the seats in the Bundestag. The CSU opposed that law and is sueing against it because they fear the 5% barrier.

Resolves YES if a party called "CSU" is elected into the 21th Bundestag.

Resolves NO if CDU and CSU merge into something not called "CSU". Also resolves NO if CSU fails to achieve 5%.

Close date might be adapted to the election date.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Feb 25, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.