Does Eastern Germany get less right wing?

Question

The Leipzig Authoritarianism Study is done every two years. Here is a diagram of 2022. The "closed right wing mindset" quota for eastern Germany fell from 9.5 in 2020 down to 2.1 in 2022:

[image]This resolves YES if the quota measured in 2024 is below 6.6% (or equal).

Resolves NO if above 6.6%.

Resolves NA if they don't publish the study in 2024 or if it has no data comparable to this one.

For context, there are many ways to measure "right-wing" but I found this one interesting. At first sight, there seems to be a general down trend. However, if the measurement for "eastern" in 2022 was randomly off, then it might bounce back hard and not look like a downtrend. The 6.6% in 2006 was previously the lowest number, so I picked that as limit. The full study and more can be found here (in german though).

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Dec 28, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.