Will at least one new hair loss treatment which is more effective than existing treatments become approved by the FDA and publicly available by 2027?

Question

"More effective" - among all potential users, the treatment promotes better average hair restoration than any individual existing treatment (combinations of treatments do not count). Less side effects is not the same as better effectiveness.

Example of a high potential treatment:

GT20029

Related market (2 years shorter):

(https://manifold.markets/embed/lukalot/will-at-least-one-new-hair-loss-tre-9faf35b36be1)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (10 traders, as of Oct 27, 2025).