Will I attend Manifest 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if I attend Manifest 2026 for at least 1 day.

I've never attended Manifest or any other event at Lighthaven. I asked a friend (who doesn't use Manifold) to come with me. I'm probably only going if she does, since large crowds of strangers make me nervous. We did not obtain tickets yet.

She'll only go if it's free (or significantly cheaper than $425/day). Me too kinda. Volunteer tickets perhaps?

We're in the Bay Area

We might stay in the Lighthaven dorms and for LessOnline/Summer Camp too

I leave for a flight 6/14 morning

She has a deadline on 6/15 to prep for

I'm worried about being unsociable and might change my mind about going

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 90% chance (15 traders, as of Jun 10, 2026).