Will the Democrats win any statewide election in Texas by the end of 2030?

Question

Resolves to YES if the Democrats win any presidential, Senate, or statewide constitutional officer election in Texas on or before before 31 December 2030. The current statewide elected offices are governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, land commissioner, agriculture commissioner, and three railroad commissioners, all of which are held by Republicans, as are both of the state's Senate seats.

Democrats last won Texas in a presidential in 1976, and last won a statewide election in 1994 (when Bob Bullock was re-elected as Lieutenant Governor). But the once reliably conservative state has seen a shift to the left recently, with Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke receiving 48% of the vote in 2018, and Joe Biden coming within 6% of winning the state in 2020. Texas voting for the Democrats would be a huge shift in American politics – could it happen this decade?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 70% chance (21 traders, as of Aug 12, 2026).