Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

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This market will close when the election is called, as to prevent those watching live election results from abandoning their positions right before a Prime Minister is selected.

Note: if Labour replaces Keir Starmer without calling a general election, this question will not resolve. To resolve, a general election must be held, and a prime minister subsequently appointed.

If the UK government ceases to exist or function, or if democratic general elections cease as a practice, etc., this question will be cancelled.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Nigel Farage, followed by Kemi Badenoch and Rupert Lowe are most likely. See the market for live updates (152 traders, as of Jul 15, 2026).