Who will be the 2026 Democratic candidate for NY-12?

Question

With Jerry Nadler not running, the seat for NY12 is up for grabs. This question will resolve to whoever is the Democratic nominee, post-primary.

Resolution criteria

Resolves to the individual certified by the New York State Board of Elections (NYSBOE) as the Democratic nominee for U.S. House, New York’s 12th Congressional District (NY‑12), for the Nov. 3, 2026 general election. Source to verify: NYSBOE Ballot Certifications and Election Results pages (use the 2026 Primary certification when posted; if uncontested, use the 2026 General ballot certification). (elections.ny.gov, en.wikipedia.org)

Timing: Market resolves upon NYSBOE’s certification naming the nominee. If recounts/litigation delay certification, resolution waits for the final NYSBOE certification. (elections.ny.gov)

Post‑primary changes: If a vacancy is filled under N.Y. Election Law § 6‑148 before NYSBOE’s first certification naming the nominee, the replacement shown in that certification will resolve Yes; later substitutions do not change the outcome. (nysenate.gov)

District changes: If New York renumbers/adjusts districts, resolution is based on the seat labeled “NY‑12” on the 2026 certified ballot. (elections.ny.gov)

Background

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) announced on Sept. 2, 2025 that he will not seek reelection in 2026, opening the Manhattan‑based NY‑12 seat. (reuters.com, pbs.org)

NY‑12 is one of the safest Democratic seats in the country; recent PVI/returns show an overwhelming Democratic lean (e.g., Biden ~85% on current lines). Primaries are typically decisive. (ballotpedia.org)

Early potential contenders mentioned in NYC political reporting include:

Micah Lasher — Assembly Member, AD‑69; former Nadler aide. Official bio. Reporting suggests he’s a favored contender. (nyassembly.gov, cityandstateny.com, thecity.nyc)

Alex Bores — Assembly Member, AD‑73 (Upper East/Midtown East). Official bio. (nysassembly.gov)

Erik Bottcher — NYC Council Member, District 3 (West Village/Chelsea/Hell’s Kitchen). Official bio. (council.nyc.gov)

Considerations

Post‑primary vacancies can be filled by party committees under N.Y. Election Law § 6‑148; certification timing determines which name appears on the ballot and thus resolves this market. (nysenate.gov)

U.S. House candidates need only be inhabitants of the state at election time—not necessarily residents of the specific congressional district—which can broaden the potential field. (constitution.congress.gov)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Micah Lasher, followed by Alex Bores and George Conway are most likely. See the market for live updates (64 traders, as of Jun 21, 2026).