Will the average American man weigh 200lbs in 2030?

Question

Currently the average adult male in the United States weighs 199.8lbs according to the CDC.

This market resolves to Yes if according to the best available data at the start of 2030, the average American adult male weighs >200lbs.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (21 traders, as of Apr 17, 2026).