Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2034?

Question

This question concerns flagship universities in the United States, as defined in this Wikipedia category (as of 10/23/2024)

Several potential factors could drive such a closure within the next decade:

Political conflict, especially in regions like the South

Disruptions from AI or alternative education models

Financial collapse or bankruptcy

Broader collapse or major restructuring of the higher education system

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (23 traders, as of May 18, 2026).