Will the US issue debt exceeding the debt ceiling in 2023? (e.g. by the 14th Amendment or "least illegal" principle)

Question

Resolves YES if in 2023, the US issues debt exceeding the statutory debt ceiling, otherwise NO. (I.e. if US debt ever exceeds the then-current statutory limits, that's a YES.)

Context

The US is facing a debt ceiling crisis, and if no action is taken could default on its obligations (which is illegal). Faced between a choice between illegally defaulting on obligations that were already mandated by Congress, and illegally issuing more debt, it is possible that the US could choose the latter as the "least illegal" option. However, it is likely that such a debt issuance would be challenged in the courts and therefore market rates for the debt would be much higher than normal.

Another possibility is invoking the 14th Amendment, which states “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law … shall not be questioned.” According to Vox, "Some legal scholars have argued that this clause renders the debt ceiling unconstitutional" although there is not a legal consensus.

In either of those scenarios, the US would be exceeding the statutory debt limit, and this market would resolve YES.

(The constitutionality of the statutory debt limit will not matter for this market's resolution. If the US exceeds it, that is a YES resolution, even if it is later struck down in the courts.)

Other workarounds involve avoiding the debt limit (e.g. minting the coin, issuing premium bonds) and those would not qualify for a YES resolution. In particular, issuing debt via "special purpose entities" which are not subject to the debt limit would not qualify for YES resolution. This market only resolves YES if the US exceeds the statutory debt limit.

If it is discovered in 2023 that the US accidentally issued debt exceeding the statutory debt limit, that would also resolve YES.

If the debt ceiling is raised and the US government issues debt above the old limit but below the new limit, that does not count as YES

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.