Will the US call a federal constitutional convention by end of 2024?

Question

Resolves YES if the US Congress calls a constitutional convention as called for by 2/3 of state legislatures, as per Article 5 of the Constitution, by end of 2024. Otherwise resolves NO.

Background: There are two paths to propose constitutional amendments: Congress can propose an amendment with 2/3 of both houses, or 2/3 of state legislatures can call for a constitutional convention. Proposed amendments must be ratified by 3/4 of state legislatures to become law. So far, all amendments have been by Congress; there has not been a constitutional convention to propose amendments.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/us/politics/constitutional-convention-republican-states.html

A Second Constitutional Convention? Some Republicans Want to Force One

Throughout the nation’s history, 27 changes have been made to the Constitution by another grindingly arduous route, with amendments originating in Congress subject to ratification by the states.

With sharp partisanship making that path near impossible, backers of the convention idea now hope to harness the power of Republican-controlled state legislatures to petition Congress and force a convention they see as a way to strip away power from Washington and impose new fiscal restraints, at a minimum.

Note that amendments proposed at a constitutional convention still require ratification by 3/4 of states.

Notes:

Resolves YES when the convention is called by Congress - it is not required that the convention is held by the market deadline.

If it is claimed that 2/3 of state legislatures have applied for a constitutional convention, that is not sufficient to cause YES resolution - it only resolves YES when the convention is called by Congress.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.