Resolves YES if Starship descends through 25km altitude without exploding, otherwise NO.

(Main heating takes place between 65 and 35 km, see 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_entry

"Exploding" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly of Starship (the upper stage). If the booster explodes by itself, that does not matter for this question.

If telemetry is lost and it can't be confirmed whether Starship descended through 25km, then it will be presumed that it did not. I.e. YES resolution requires confirmation that it descended through 25km altitude without exploding.

This question is about the next Starship launch with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.

The beginning of the test is defined here as when it lifts off from the pad under its own thrust, however slightly. If Starship explodes on the pad before liftoff, that will not count as the 5th test. If Starship explodes after that point and before reentry, that resolves NO.

Trading on this question may be closed/paused just before or during the flight, at my discretion (with the goal of allowing a bigger subsidy on non-live trading instead of live trading).