https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18169/date-for-room-temp-superconductivity/

For positive resolution, a material must be developed or discovered that demonstrates reliable superconductivity at a temperature between -5° and 105° C and at a pressure between 0.8 and 1.2 standard atmosphere.

One initial paper and a successful, credible replication appearing in a reputable peer-reviewed journal will suffice for positive resolution, and will resolve as the date of the publication of the replication paper.

All type superconductors are eligible (e.g., Type-I, -II, -1.5).

Both temperature and pressure criteria must be satisfied at the same time by the same material or complex of materials.

If for some reason the journal-based criterion proves unworkable, mods may use credible media reports at their discretion.

Recently, South Korean scientists uploaded an 

 claiming to have synthesized a material, LK-99, that is superconductive at room temperature and pressure. The implications of this, if true, are monumentous.

However, the paper has come under fire for being either fraudulent, mistaken, shoddy, or some combination of all three. There is currently an 

 on Metaculus about whether the LK-99 paper will replicate.

But whether or not that first paper replicates, this question asks something broader: when, if ever, will superconductivity at ambient temperature and pressure be achieved?