Will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved before 2030?

Question

Resolves YES if https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18169/date-for-room-temp-superconductivity/ resolves to a date before 2030.

Copy of Metaculus's criteria:

Resolution Criteria

For positive resolution, a material must be developed or discovered that demonstrates reliable superconductivity at a temperature between -5° and 105° C and at a pressure between 0.8 and 1.2 standard atmosphere.

One initial paper and a successful, credible replication appearing in a reputable peer-reviewed journal will suffice for positive resolution, and will resolve as the date of the publication of the replication paper.

Fine Print

All type superconductors are eligible (e.g., Type-I, -II, -1.5).

Both temperature and pressure criteria must be satisfied at the same time by the same material or complex of materials.

If for some reason the journal-based criterion proves unworkable, mods may use credible media reports at their discretion.

Background

Recently, South Korean scientists uploaded an unreviewed paper claiming to have synthesized a material, LK-99, that is superconductive at room temperature and pressure. The implications of this, if true, are monumentous.

However, the paper has come under fire for being either fraudulent, mistaken, shoddy, or some combination of all three. There is currently an active question on Metaculus about whether the LK-99 paper will replicate.

But whether or not that first paper replicates, this question asks something broader: when, if ever, will superconductivity at ambient temperature and pressure be achieved?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (52 traders, as of Aug 28, 2026).