Will McCarthy be elected next Speaker of the House with fewer than 218 votes?

Question

Resolves YES if McCarthy is elected next Speaker of the House with strictly fewer than 218 votes for him. Otherwise NO.

Context: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/02/house-speaker-vote-explained/10912271002/

The magic number is 218 – kind of.

A candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.

But lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote "present," which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.

In the next Congress, all 434 members (one fewer than 435 because Virginia Rep. Donald McEachin recently died and a successor has yet to be chosen) can vote. If the results, for example, are: 216 votes for McCarthy, 212 for a Democratic candidate and 6 representatives vote for someone else, the 216 votes would not be the majority of 434 needed for the speakership. McCarthy would come up short.

However, if those six representatives do not vote for someone else, they don't count toward the total votes needed. This lowers the threshold to 428, meaning a 216 vote could secure the speakership for McCarthy.

Fine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jan 7, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.