Will at least 5 Democrats abstain/vote present in the ballot electing the next Speaker of the House?

Question

Resolves YES if at least 5 Democratic members of the House either do not vote or vote "present" in the ballot electing the next Speaker of the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress. Otherwise NO.

If there are multiple ballots, only the final deciding ballot counts for this question.

A member not voting for any reason counts, including absence. A vacant seat doesn't count, because it's not a member.

Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution

If the House does not elect another Speaker before the end of the current term (118th Congress), that's a NO.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 25, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.