When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2026, otherwise NO.

 but for contest programming instead of math.

This will resolve using the same resolution criteria as 

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12467/ai-wins-ioi-gold-medal/

, i.e. it resolves YES if the Metaculus question resolves to a date prior to the deadline.

In Feb 2022, DeepMind published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming: 

https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode

. When will an AI system perform as well as the top humans?

International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI)

 is an annual competitive programming contest for high school students, and is one of the most well-known and prestigous competitive programming contests.

Gold medals in the IOI are awarded to approximately the top 1/12 (8%) of contestants. Each country can send their top 4 contestants to the IOI, i.e. a gold medal is top 8% of an already selected pool of contestants.

Scoring is based on solving problems correctly. There are two competition days, and on each day there are 5 hours to solve three problems. Scoring is not based on how fast you submit solutions. Contestants can submit up to 50 solution attempts for each problem and see limited feedback (such as "correct answer" or "time limit exceeded") for each submission.