Will a nuclear weapon be detonated outside Ukraine and cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2023?

Question

This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated outside Ukraine and causes at least 1 fatality, after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.

The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.

For the purposes of this question, Ukrainian territory will be defined as internationally recognized prior to 2014 (that is, including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk), and include the 12 nautical mile territorial sea.

A test detonation would count towards question resolution.

Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.