Poll: is betting on a yes/no market after the outcome is known bad?

Question

Do you think it's bad to bet (or allow betting) on a market after the outcome is known? For this question, please consider only binary (yes/no) markets.

Vote by commenting with YES, NO, or a percentage at the start of your comment. (YES = 100%, NO = 0%, you can also choose any percentage in between if you think it's e.g. 30% bad.)

The market resolves to the average of valid votes in the poll as of 1 day after market close.

There are multiple perspectives you could consider, including the traders, author, liquidity providers, and readers. Different people may prioritize different things, so I'm asking whether you think it's bad overall.

A little context for those not familiar with the market math: for binary (yes/no) markets, buying when the outcome is known lets you take some additional profits, which comes from the liquidity providers. But it does not affect any previous traders already holding shares, since if you make a trade and hold until resolution, any later trades do not affect your profits/losses.

See related market with some discussion by Austin: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifolds-fixedpayout-markets

You can update your vote by commenting again; only your last response will be counted.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jun 27, 2022 by Manifold Markets prediction market.