Consider this hypothetical scenario: Say there is a prediction market "Will Alice's portfolio value be at least M$10,000 at the end of January?" Say Bob sees Alice currently has M$5,000, so he buys YES on the prediction market and transfers Alice M$5,000 to get the market to resolve YES.

This is based on couple of recent controversies, but I've abstracted and changed the scenario somewhat to focus more on the question in principle and less on the specific people and profits/losses involved.

Scroll the the bottom of the comments where I have posted a poll - you can vote either YES or NO by liking the appropriate comment. The poll closes at market close (Jan 14). Resolves to the percentage of votes (YES) / (YES + NO) when I check the vote tally shortly after the poll closes. By voting, you agree to vote honestly.

You are also encouraged to discuss your thoughts in the comments.

(If it matters, assume the market in the hypothetical scenario is run by a reliable third party who is guaranteed to resolve correctly.)