Consider this hypothetical scenario: Say there is a prediction market "Will Manifold have over 1000 daily active users (DAU) by the end of January?" Say someone sees Manifold currently has 990 DAU so they buy YES and create 10 alt accounts to push the number to 1000 to get the market to resolve YES, turning a profit.

This is based on couple of recent controversies, but I've abstracted and changed the scenario to focus more on the question in principle and less on the specific people and profits/losses involved. (There have been no actual controversies about manipulating Manfold's DAU to my knowledge, but it's inspired by a similar controversy about something else.)

Scroll the the bottom of the comments where I have posted a poll - you can vote either YES or NO by liking the appropriate comment. The poll closes at market close (Jan 14). Resolves to the percentage of votes (YES) / (YES + NO) when I check the vote tally shortly after the poll closes. By voting, you agree to vote honestly.

You are also encouraged to discuss your thoughts in the comments.