How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?

Question

Market closes at the time the last rocket from the Falcon 9-family has launched, just like https://manifold.markets/ianminds/how-many-falcon-9family-rockets-wil.

Only successful and useful launches will be counted.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ianminds/how-many-falcon-9family-rockets-wil)

Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.3836580671182372 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Apr 16, 2026).