How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?

Question

Market closes at the time the last rocket from the Falcon 9-family has launched, per the criteria at https://manifold.markets/ianminds/when-will-the-last-spacex-falcon-9. I.e. if a Falcon rocket comes out of retirement to stop an asteroid or something, this market will not be reopened ;-)

Falcon Heavy and any other as of yet undeveloped future derivatives will count for this market.

Initial value set at 300 per this ancient tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/995462943079723008.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.8640879926528785 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Jul 4, 2026).