Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"?

Question

By legal consequences I mean:
1) Having the cops called on him and landing himself in jail overnight, even if the case later gets dropped
2) Getting sued in a strong enough case that it would survive to trial (doesn't get tossed in a motion to dismiss or summary judgement), or forces a significant cash settlement (settlement values may not be public, I'll use my best judgement)

Unrelated legal troubles (DUIs, or him being caught doing drugs, or being sued for SAing someone in a frat party) will not be considered.

I will not bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 43% chance (2 traders, as of Apr 17, 2026).