Who will be responsible for the next space fatality?

Question

1: I'm counting any in-flight accident of orbital or sub-orbital capable craft. The 2014 VSS Entreprise crash would count for example, even if it was a test-flight.

2: Two entities might share responsibility (lets say SpaceX and NASA for example) if flight operations are not managed by the craft constructor

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Roscosmos, followed by NASA and SpaceX are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Mar 28, 2026).