Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Question

Do commercial services like Midjourney and Bing Image Creator have to stop or adapt their services in the US by 2027 because they rely on training data that was not explicitly released for that purpose by the authors?

If new law or an interpretation of current law causes them to stop their service, this resolves as "YES".

If it causes them to rely only on new models trained on a limited pool from authors who explicitly agreed, this also resolves as "YES".

If their current models or successors or equivalent models from new competitors are still commercially used at the end of 2027, this resolves as "NO".

If authors are only compensated for the use, without a way to opt-out of the usage, it will NOT be enough to resolve as "YES".

If their art can still be used freely by research or for open-source projects, that fact will NOT hold up a "NO".

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (15 traders, as of Aug 8, 2026).