Will the Third Modi Government fall?

Question

The results of the 2024 Indian General Elections were declared on 5 June 2024. On 7 June 2024, Narendra Modi staked claim to form the government (i.e., executive) of India.

Controlling the executive requires the support of a parliamentary majority. Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, on its own does not have enough seats to cross majority mark, and so requires the support of its alliance, the National Democratic Alliance, to control government.

Resolves YES if Narendra Modi does not hold the post of Prime Minister at any point before the standard end of term.

Resolves NO if Modi retains this post throughout the term.

On the unlikely occasion elections are called early and before his resignation, then I will gauge whether it was done due to a lack of support. Since this may involve a subjective call, I will not participate in the market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (25 traders, as of Oct 21, 2026).