Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026?

Question

"Bangladesh has told India it wants former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to New Delhi in August, back in the country for 'judicial process', says the acting head of the country’s foreign ministry." [1]

This market resolves based on whether India formally executes the extradition of Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by 31 December 2026.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the Indian/Bangladeshi government or relevant authorities. India simply making a statement agreeing to extradite will not be sufficient to resolve as YES; the extradition must be actually carried out within the timeframe.

References:

[1]: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/23/bangladesh-tells-india-it-wants-ex-pm-hasina-back-for-judicial-process

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (15 traders, as of Sep 1, 2026).