Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Question

https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/ says "The Stargate Project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States. We will begin deploying $100 billion immediately. This infrastructure will secure American leadership in AI, create hundreds of thousands of American jobs, and generate massive economic benefit for the entire world. This project will not only support the re-industrialization of the United States but also provide a strategic capability to protect the national security of America and its allies."

500 billion is a LOT. Will all of actually get invested within the timeframe? Resolves YES if it is reported from a credible source (NYT, OpenAI, federal government, CNN) that $500 billion got invested. Resolves NO if the funding gets cut, not all the money is invested, the funding is spread out over more than four years, etc.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 29% chance (60 traders, as of Jun 25, 2026).