Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Question

Start date: April 9 , 2024

End date: April 9, 2026

Market with a shorter timeline:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/will-ai-be-able-to-write-compile-an-0508a14ba6a3?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)inspired from this tweet by Andrej Karpathy:

Btw writing the llm.c training code would imo be a very interesting, impressive, self-contained and very meta challenge for LLM agents.

The prompt is: Take the PyTorch code train_gpt2.py And write, compile and unit test a single .c file that reproduces the training: train_gpt2.c

The current models are not there, but we can check back in a year or two or so. If that worked...

[tweet]

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (52 traders, as of Apr 8, 2026).