AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?

Question

Currently the SOTA has 1.96% resolves "unassisted"

[image]For the % resolves where assistance is provided, please refer to the following market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench-f71248ffff46)Leaderboard (Scroll a bit)

(https://www.swebench.com/)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, X = 60, followed by X = 50 and X = 75 are most likely. See the market for live updates (26 traders, as of Jun 24, 2025).