Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?

Question

Will the SCOTUS agree to hear a case about CFTC pre-emption wrt to prediction markets / events contracts by 2030?

The case can be about Kalshi or any other event contract venue. The spirit of the market intends to resolve on the issue of whether or not state sports betting laws will be pre-empted, but in the interest of avoiding rules issues, any preemption case about PMs will do.

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if, by market close, the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in a case where the Questions Presented include whether federal law (e.g., the Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets/event contracts, and the Court holds oral argument (including in a consolidated case). Summary dispositions without argument and emergency applications on the shadow docket do NOT count. Denial of cert does not count. Verification: Supreme Court docket page for the case and the Court’s oral argument calendar. See SCOTUS docket search and oral-argument listings. (supremecourt.gov)

Background

Multiple 2025 suits test whether the CEA preempts state regulation of prediction-market/event contracts offered on CFTC-regulated exchanges (DCMs). Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted Kalshi preliminary injunctions against state enforcement, finding a likelihood of preemption; Maryland denied an injunction, emphasizing a presumption against preemption—creating a district-court split and appeals to the Third and Fourth Circuits. (docs.justia.com, hklaw.com, natlawreview.com, mondaq.com)

Considerations

A clear circuit split (e.g., Third vs. Fourth Circuits) materially raises the odds of cert. Track those appeals to gauge timing. (mondaq.com, natlawreview.com)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 44% chance (5 traders, as of Jan 1, 2026).