Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Question

Resolution criteria

Each answer date resolves independently to YES if, as of 11:59 pm ET on that date, at least one “sports outcome contract” is (a) listed for trading on a CFTC‑registered Designated Contract Market (or SEF) and (b) accepted for clearing by a CFTC‑registered Derivatives Clearing Organization, with non‑zero open interest (or a clearly documented cleared trade) in that contract. Verification sources must include: the exchange’s contract/specification page showing the underlying and clearing DCO, and either the DCO’s acceptance notice/clearing report or the exchange’s public volume/OI page. CFTC registrant status should be confirmed via the CFTC’s DCM and DCO registrant lists. (cftc.gov)

“Sports outcome contract” means a derivative whose payoff is primarily determined by the objective outcome of a sports competition (e.g., winner of a game/match, total points, player stat thresholds, tournament advancement). Contracts tied only to business/ancillary metrics (e.g., team revenue, sponsorship deals) do not count.

Does not count: state‑licensed sportsbooks/pari‑mutuel pools, DFS, sweepstakes/social casinos, offshore or crypto platforms not CFTC‑registered, or mere applications/press releases without live listing and clearing.

If the contract is delisted or clearing is suspended before the cutoff and no non‑zero OI remains, the date resolves NO.

Regulatory changes (e.g., a future CFTC rule) do not auto‑resolve; the criterion is actual listing and clearing status at the cutoff.

Primary verification links:

CFTC Designated Contract Markets list (confirm exchange registration). (cftc.gov)

CFTC Derivatives Clearing Organizations list (confirm clearinghouse registration). (cftc.gov)

Background

The CFTC proposed amendments to Regulation 40.11 on May 10, 2024, stating that event contracts involving “gaming” (explicitly including “a game in which one or more athletes compete”) would be contrary to the public interest and could not be listed or accepted for clearing; the NPRM was published in the Federal Register (comments closed July 9, 2024). This proposal, if finalized in similar form, would bar sports‑outcome contracts from CFTC‑regulated venues. (cftc.gov)

Several entities have recently obtained or sought CFTC registrations relevant to event‑type trading (e.g., new DCMs and DCOs). Traders should verify current registrant status and any product listings via the CFTC registrant pages noted above. (cftc.gov)

Some state regulators (e.g., Michigan) have urged the CFTC to treat “sporting event contracts” as equivalent to internet sports betting under state law, highlighting potential federal–state frictions that could affect listings. (michigan.gov)

Considerations

January 1 is a market holiday for many venues; contracts with non‑zero open interest as of 11:59 pm ET count even if no same‑day trades occur.

Exchanges can self‑certify products under 17 CFR 40.2; a self‑certification alone is insufficient unless the product is live and accepted for clearing. Use the exchange’s public product/OI pages plus the clearing DCO’s materials to verify. (law.cornell.edu, cftc.gov)

If the CFTC finalizes a rule prohibiting sports‑outcome contracts before a given date, expect few/no qualifying listings; resolution still depends on whether any such contract is actually listed and cleared at the cutoff. (cftc.gov)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Jan 1, 2026, followed by Jan 1, 2027 and Jan 1, 2028 are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Sep 8, 2025).