Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France?

Question

Resolves YES if Tadej Pogacar wins the general classification at the end of the 2026 Tour de France. Resolves NO otherwise, including if he does not start the Tour or does not finish.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 75% chance (23 traders, as of May 31, 2026).