Will Mathieu van der Poel win all 5 monuments during his career?

Question

Mathieu van der Poel has already won 3 of the 5 monuments (the biggest one-day classics) of road cycling. Resolves YES if he wins the 2 other monuments (Liège–Bastogne–Liège and Giro di Lombardia) before he retires.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (12 traders, as of May 11, 2025).