Will I have any critical disengagements driving 2000 miles on Tesla FSD v14?

Question

I'm renting a Tesla Model Y with HW4 and FSD version 14.2.2.5 to see for myself what it's like and how plausible it is that vision-only level 4 self-driving is imminent.

If I disengage the self-driving but it's ambiguous if I actually needed to, I'll resolve-to-PROB appropriately. In other words, we're estimating the probability of a would-be crash of any severity over 2000 miles of self-driving, almost all highway miles.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (23 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).