Disclosure: I intend to bet in this market myself. Ask clarifying questions before trading.

1. If you're reading a book you're obviously not driving?

True fact. What I mean is, when can I (safely, see next FAQ item) read a book while sitting in the driver's seat of a private car, being the sole human in charge of the car.

2. Technically you can do this in a Yugo?

It has to be safe to do! Hacking the self-driving tech to bypass the "is the driver watching the road" mechanism also doesn't count. So also legal, though if the law were to fall blatantly behind what's clearly safe, we can talk about that.

Yes, as of early 2025 Waymo is (33 million) miles ahead but won't count until they offer their tech for private cars.

Tesla has been making progress but as of early 2025, if you're consistently absorbed in a book while in the driver's seat of a Tesla it's pretty much a matter of time before it kills you.

As of early 2025, Mercedes offers SAE level 3 on certain highways in California and Nevada when there's a traffic jam keeping the speeds below 40mph, with another car it can follow, in daylight in good weather with clear lane markings etc. That's a great start but for this market we need to be closer to SAE level 4 (like Waymo). Plus much fewer restrictions. (I'll add FAQ items for each candidate restriction after discussing them in the comments.)

6. If this happens in, say, 2027, does 2028 also resolve YES?

No, we're predicting the exact year. This is a probability density function (pdf), not a cumulative distribution function (cdf).

Note that I'm betting in this market myself while committing to make the resolution fair. I'll be transparent about my reasoning and if there are good-faith objections, I'll hear them out, we'll discuss, and I'll outsource the final decision if needed. Note the evolving FAQ. The expectation is that bettors ask clarifying questions before betting, to minimize the chances of it coming down to a judgment call.

Scratch area for auto-generated AI updates

Don't believe what magically appears down here; I'll add clarifications to the FAQ.