What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026?

Question

The Agent Company is a benchmark for measuring progress on automated remote workers that's been getting a lot of press. Mostly mocking how poorly AI performed. Which is the point of this market: if you think this research suggests AI is "not coming for your job anytime soon" then bet this down.

The benchmark involves completing contrived tasks meant to simulate running a company. The best score so far is Claude at 24% (I'm guessing GPT-o3 will do better).

This market resolves-to-PROB at whatever score the best AI achieves by market close. If the benchmark is saturated, we'll resolve early to 100% (YES). Note that this market can't resolve NO but it can theoretically resolve as low as 24%.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 44% chance (7 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).