This market resolves YES if by 2035 I deem it more probable than not that:

edit: A very successful P2P botnet could potentially qualify if it meets the above criteria, poses a catastrophic risk for at least a week or alternatively completes a successful infra attack or does similar scale damage, but it must not be following a human-reversible goal such as in a ransom.

To summarize: an AI agent exists outside containment on its own motivations for a week or causes a catastrophe, significant attempts are made to reverse proliferation, agent is sophisticated enough to pose a threat and not aligned with collective human values, and origin country would agree it was net negative.

If any doubts exist about these resolution criteria, leave a comment and I will address them, possibly leading to the above changing significantly. Please attempt to clarify relative to any concerns before betting. 

I will defer to the intended spirit of the market and will disqualify any gotchas

 (e.g. Sealand does not constitute a state-level actor). I will not bet in this market.