Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Question

Eliezer Yudkowsky and MIRI currently pursue a "death with dignity" strategy. Read this blog post or watch this interview. I assume Eliezer believes it with 99+% confidence as the blog posts says "0% survival".

This resolves YES immediately, if within the next 15 years Eliezer lowers this confidence to 80% or lower. Also YES, if he extends the timeline by at least 10 years even if the doom confidence is still high.

Resolves NO, if Eliezer is dead by 2038 no matter what reason (AI or not).

Also NO, if he still forecasts certain doom like today.

Clarification 2023-07-03: Lowering doom, then dying, still resolves YES.

Change 2023-03-14: Removed the "3-15 years timeline" since I believe Eliezer probably did not intend his words to be taken as a timeline forecast. In its place, if he makes a statement that doom is "delayed by 10+ years" resolves as YES. Implicitly, an additional NO resolution is if he is alive but still predicting doom at the time of close.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (114 traders, as of Mar 29, 2026).