Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2027?

Question

Resolves YES if a SpaceX Starship reaches an Earth escape trajectory, such that it is no longer gravitationally bound to Earth.

This will be determined via statements from SpaceX that Starship has reached an escape trajectory, or from telemetry data showing Starship having a speed of at least:

[image]where d is Starship's altitude as measured from the centre of the Earth.

Note that SpaceX livestreams ordinarily show speed telemetry data in a frame rotating with the Earth, so a coordinate transformation may be needed to determine whether Starship has reached escape velocity or not, if it's close enough for the rotation of the Earth to matter. I know how to do the needed transformation, as long as altitude telemetry is also available, and Starship's downrange direction is known (from these one can infer the full 3D velocity vector).

Resolves NO if no Starship reaches escape velocity before 2027, and N/A if it's not possible to reasonably determine whether escape velocity was reached or not.

The relevant timezone for "before 2027" is local time at the launch site.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (21 traders, as of May 6, 2026).