Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater in Q4 2023?

Question

Resolves on whether the Q4 2023 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows CPI growth of 4.7% or greater, rounded to one decimal place, in the 12 months to December 2023.

This data will likely be released in late Jan 2024. Market will resolve upon the initial release without regard for revisions that future releases may contain.

This question pertains to the quarterly CPI releases, not to the "monthly CPI indicator" series recently started by the ABS. If there is no such distinction anymore come end of 2023, and CPI releases move to monthly instead of quarterly, then this market will resolve using the release for the month of December.

The threshold of 4.7% comes from the RBA's November 2022 forecasts.

Mar 2, 7:53pm: Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater for 2023? → Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater in Q4 2023?

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 31, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.