Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2025 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)?

Question

This question will use data published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which runs the United States Crisis Monitor project.

For the purposes of this question, "a major spike in protests" means 1,000 or more demonstrations (protests and riots) in a single week in 2025, according to ACLED data.

The last time this threshold was passed was during the George Floyd protests, in May and June of 2020, visible as the only major spike in the ACLED's demonstration data from Jan 2020 to Mar 2024:

[image]The largest protests of 2024 were Palestine/Israel demonstrations, which peaked at 643 demonstration events in any single week between April and May.

[image]Will there be a major spike in protests in the United States in any week of 2024, according to ACLED data?