Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before 2030?

Question

This question resolves YES if Pope Leo XIV (Robert Francis Prevost) ceases to be pope of the Roman Catholic Church for any reason before 2030.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-pope-leo-xiv-cease-to-be-pope-A9qynAd6yN?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 16% chance (20 traders, as of Oct 11, 2026).