Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Question

Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.

[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?

Same question except:

before end of 2024

before end of 2025

before end of 2026

before end of 2027

before end of 2028

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (72 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).