Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?

Question

Carles Puigdemont was elected president of Catalonia by parliamentary vote in 2016, approving an illegal referendum on independence from Spain that was held in 2017. The resulting constitutional crisis in the imposition of direct rule over Catalonia by the Spanish central government and the arrest of Catalan politicians involved in the referendum.

Carles Puigdemont fled the country and currently resides in Belgium.

Recently, Spain's Socialist Party leader Pedro Sánchez is trying to form a government with support from Catalan parties, who "have demanded an amnesty for several hundred Catalan politicians and activists who face legal action mainly for activities linked to a failed bid to secede from Spain in 2017." (BBC)

Sánchez has "agreed with ERC on the content of the amnesty bill" and "among those who would benefit from the law is Carles Puigdemont."

This question resolves YES so long as there is any date before 2030 in which Carles Puigdemont is in Catalonia and is a "free man." I take being "free" to mean that he is not under arrest, in jail, or in prison, has no charges against him related to the 2017 referendum or other charges that are politically motivated, and is in no other significant way unfree.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 93% chance (9 traders, as of Oct 27, 2026).