Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?

Question

The Spanish region of Catalonia has held two referenda on independence, one in 2014 and another in 2017. The latter caused a constitutional crisis in which Catalan leaders were arrested and the region was placed under "direct rule" for six months.

Will Catalonia hold another referendum on independence before the end of the decade?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (25 traders, as of Oct 9, 2026).